When the future seems uncertain, unpredictable our decision-making process breaks down, we may become paralysed and scared to act or we may become impulsive, act based on our bias, emotion and not decide based on logic and available facts.
The first step to manage uncertainty is to be aware of it, which means pausing, assessing the situation and the unknowns. We now have some basic data, though incomplete, that can be worked on. We can now use the four-step process to work on the available data and take carefully reasoned decisions.
Identify the category of data
There are three kinds of data that we are all faced with - salient data - data that is significant and catches our attention; contextual data - data that is relevant to the context and the impact depends upon how it is interpreted and patterned data - which has a pattern, is regular, intelligible and meaningful.
Recognise the biases triggered by each category
Different types of data trigger different reactions and so it is important to identify the data and its biases to be aware of the mental traps.
- salient data - We give too much weightage to this type of data and this may result in planning errors, incorrect decision making and more.
- Contextual data - The context in which we receive the data affects how we think about it.
- patterned data - We are trained to look for patterns even when they don't exist. Even when patterns do exist they may not have a predictive value. Recognising how this pattern affects our thinking can prevent us from falling prey to these biases.
Invert the problem to know what we need to know
You need to identify what matters the most in your decision making though you may not know everything. Begin at the end. The universe of known unknowns is endless and it is not possible to explore them all. What is required is to know the factors critical to solving your specific problem with confidence.
Formulate the right questions to get the correct answer
Organise your questions into four groups - behaviour, opinion, feelings and knowledge. This will ensure that you look at a problem from different perspectives and help you counter the preconceived assumptions and judgements. it will also give you a better perspective for interpreting the answers.
- behaviour - addresses questions like what someone does or has done and get an answer on actual experiences and actions.
- opinion - here the questions are about the opinions, thoughts about an action, topic, event. You can come to know of people's goals, wants and values.
- feeling Questions related to how a person responds to a topic. This helps you go beyond the actual data and understand what people may be inclined to do irrespective of available data.
- knowledge explore how much information a person has about the topic. It assesses what the person considers to be factual.
These queries acknowledge that uncertainty is a mix of actions, reactions, knowledge and emotion. The four-step process helps us better address our responses, move forward rationally. By going through this we will have a better picture reducing the likelihood of our usual pathways or biases. By examining our data and our thinking we can develop an ask great questions that will allow us to confidently make decisions amid uncertainty.
How to Make Rational Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty
by Cheryl Strauss Einhorn
August 28, 2020
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